The Threat to the Planet: Dark and Bright Sides of Global Warming

James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Adjunct Professor: Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University

The Earth’s history reveals that climate is remarkably sensitive to forcings, imposed perturbations of the planet’s energy balance. Human-made forcings now dwarf natural forcings. Despite large inertia of the climate system, changes are now emerging above the substantial ‘noise’ of unforced chaotic variability, and greater changes are already ‘in the pipeline’. Implications of continued ‘business as usual’ for humanity, and all life on the planet, are staggering, yet understanding possessed by the relevant scientific community has not been translated into required knowledge for those who need to know, the public and policy-makers.

There is a clear and present danger of the climate system passing certain ‘tipping points’, climate states where warming in the pipeline and positive feedbacks permit large rapid changes with little if any additional climate forcing. The fact that we are much closer to dangerous consequences has a bright side: we must stabilize atmospheric composition at a level that will avoid many impacts that had begun to seem almost inevitable, including ocean acidification, intensification of regional climate extremes, and water shortages. Understanding of the climate system, the carbon cycle, and fossil fuel reservoirs is sufficient to define general actions that are needed to stabilize climate. These actions would lead to stable climate with cleaner air and water and would have great ancillary benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and wildlife preservation.

As yet, these actions are not being pursued with required urgency. Based on numerous personal experiences, I conclude that this inaction stems from the ‘success’ of special financial interests in subverting the intent of the democratic process to operate for the general good. Solution of the climate emergency requires overcoming these flaws, a feasible task.